地统计学和GIS用于计算近海水环境容量的研究

以天津市近岸海域为例，通过对地统计学的研究和地理信息系统（GIS，geographic information system）软件的应用，提出了一种完全基于环境监测数据的计算近海水环境客量的新方法．首先时COD监测数据进行地统计学分析，确定研究海域有机物分布的空间结构特征；其后以此为基础，采用普通克里格法对整个天津市近海的有机物浓度进行空间插值；最后，借助GIS软件的地图代数运算功能，依据质量守恒原理，建立近海水环境容量的计算方法，估算出最不利状态下天津市近海的水环境容量．通过应用表明，本方法避免了复杂的模型计算，具有原理简单、实用性强等特点，适合在近海环境管理中应用．

Study on estimation of coastal water environmental capacity by geostatistics and GIS

Taking Tianjin coastal marine as an example, a new methodology for estimation of coastal water environmental capacity was proposed through the study on geostatistics and GIS (geographic information system) software. Firstly, geostatistical analysis of COD values from monitoring points were taken, which induced the spatial structure of COD in a study area. Secondly, the concentration of the organic substance in coastal marine was estimated by ordinary Krige method. Finally, based on map algebra function of GIS, calculation method for coastal water environmental capacity was proposed according to conservation of mass and the result under the worst conditions was worked out. Through application it can be found that the method can avoid complex model calculations and it is simple, practicable and suitable for the application to environmental management of coastal ma-