基于改进后灰靶模型的四川省水资源紧缺度评价

针对传统灰靶模型等权不合理的问题,尝试引入指标权重对模型加以改进。为提高权重的可信度,采用熵权法与层次分析法(AHP法)相结合的方法确定指标权重(综合权重),由此建立了基于综合权重的改进后灰靶评价模型,并将其应用于四川省水资源紧缺度评价。结果表明,基于综合权重的改进后灰靶评价模型对于水资源紧缺度评价是可行且有效的。与传统的灰靶评价模型和采用熵权法、AHP法确定指标权重的改进后模型相比,主客观结合确定指标权重的改进后灰靶模型更具科学性和合理性,且该方法思路清晰,计算简洁,并能形象地展示各要素层间的相互关系,具有推广应用价值。

Shortage Degree Assessment of Water Resources in Sichuan Province Based on Improved Grey Target Model

The traditional grey target model was improved by weights.In order to improve the reliability of the index weight,entropy method combined with AHP method was used to determine the index weight,then an improved grey target model based on comprehensive weights was proposed.Its efficiency was verified by evaluating shortage degree of water resources of Sichuan province.Compared with traditional grey target model,the proposed method is scientific,rational,simple for concept and calculation,and can display progressive relation clearly.