基于实物期权理论的生物质发电项目投资决策研究

随着低碳经济的发展,生物质发电作为一种清洁能源快速发展起来。但是传统的现金流贴现（DCF）决策评价方法存在本质的缺陷,同时,生物质发电项目具有较高的不可逆性、不确定性、可持续性和高风险性等特性,传统的DCF分析方法不适合生物质发电项目投资决策。本文引入实物期权理论,分析了生物质发电项目的实物期权特性,建立了生物质发电项目的实物期权模型,并结合具体的案例定量分析了传统的DCF法的缺陷和基于实物期权法的生物质发电项目决策的科学性。

Research on Biomass Power Generation Project Investment Decision-making Based on Real Options Theory

With the rapid development of low carbon economy,Biomass power generation as a clean energy has developed rapidly.However,the traditional discounted cash flow（DCF）decision-making evaluation method has the defects of nature.Meanwhile,Biomass power projects has characteristics such as high irreversible,uncertainty,sustainable and high risk,the traditional DCF analysis method is not suitable for biomass power projects investment decisions.This paper introduced a real option theory,analyzed the real option characteristics of biomass power generation project,established the real option model of biomass power generation project,combined with a specific case,made quantitative analysis of the traditional DCF method defects and the scientific of biomass power generation project decision-making Based on the real option method.