编制住房建设规划的几点思考

供不应求是房价上涨的主要原因。我国城镇住房供需平衡逆转的时间点,可能与美国货币政策转向的时间点重合。届时房价大幅下跌的可能性剧增,将给我国金融系统稳定乃至国民经济健康发展带来严重影响。编制住房建设规划,科学判断未来一段时期城镇住房供求关系,有助于稳定和引导市场预期,实现房价与消费能力基本适应。我国住房建设规划工作现在处于起步摸索期,要尽快启动全国及省区级住房建设规划的编制工作,细化住房政策目标;要科学预测住房需求,合理确定住房建设目标;要编制存量住房改造规划,重视发挥现有资源作用;要优化住房建设空间布局,平衡地区间供需,并方便各阶层群众生产和生活;要妥善处理保障与市场之间的关系,严格执行发展小户型住房的有关政策;要充分发挥房产税作用,降低房屋空置率。

SOME THOUGHTS ON HOUSING DEVELOPMENT PLAN

The urban housing shortage is the main reason of rising housing price. The urban housing supply and demand will reach equilibrium at the time when U.S. monetary policy goes tight. If by then hot money flow back to U.S., the probability of China housing price collapse will increase, which will hurt the stability of China financial system as well as national economy growth. A suitable plan of housing development and a reasonable forecasting of housing supply and demand will help to stabilize and instruct expectations, as well as accommodate housing price and consumption power. The housing development plan in China is just at the beginning and testing period. We should draw up country-level and province-level housing development plan as soon as possible, and meanwhile refine housing policy objectives. We need to not only determine the scale of new housing but also prepare for the renewal planning of housing stock. We need to optimize the spatial layout of housing construction, to balance housing supply and demand in different regions and facilitate work and life. We must properly handle the relationship between government and the market, and strictly enforce the policy of small units. Finally, we should use property taxes to reduce housing vacancy rate.