中国城镇居民住房自有率影响因素的数量分析

目的研究中国社会、经济因素对城镇居民住房自有率的影响。为改善中国居民住房水平提供理论依据．方法采用中国各省份2003年的截面数据，建立计量经济模型，通过F-检验、t-检验、异方差检验和多重共线性检验，对各变量进行显著性分析．结果经计算我国城镇居民住房自有率有4个主要的影响因素，其中，城镇化率、家庭规模与之呈负相关关系，政府消费、人均实际可支配收入增长呈正相关关系．4个变量的解释能力达到53％．结论多元线性回归的计量分析方法，能有效地筛选、分析城镇居民住房自有率的各种影响变量，对住房政策的制定有重要的参考价值．

Econometrical Analysis of Factors Affecting Homeownership Rate of Urban Resident in China

This paper aims at proposing the relationship between the resident housing level and the social and economic influence factors in theory on the basis of analyzing the homeownership of the urban resident in China.The author establishes an econometrical model with the cross-section data of provinces in 2003,by the method of F-test,t-test,test for heteroscedasticity and test for multi-collinearity.The variables that have significant explanatory effects on the urban resident homeownership rate are picked out.The results of the model reveal that the most influential factors are four variables including urbanization and size of family households (a positive relationship),government consumption and increasing rate of real per disposable income(a negative relationship).The explanatory power of these four variables can reach up to 53 percent.The econometrical method of multiple-linear regression can efficiently select and analyze the variables of urban resident homeownership rate.Its analytical result is of significant referential value to the housing policies.