基于区域同步特性的小水电出力随机建模及其准入容量评估

为准确方便地计算小水电的准入容量,首先考虑负荷及小水电出力的随机特性,建立了相应的随机模型;然后针对不同地区气象条件的差异性,提出区域同步特性概念,利用拟合精度较高的非参数核密度估计法作为参考,对水电出力进行常规分布类型建模,并以节点电压不越限为约束条件,得到不同负荷分布下的准入容量表达式,该表达式考虑了模型的差异性,引入修正系数;最后以实际运行配电网为算例,利用所提方法并结合随机潮流进行仿真计算,从而验证了算法的合理性。

Stochastic Modeling of Small Hydropower Generation Based on Regional Synchronism Feature and Its Allowed Penetration Level Evaluation

In order to obtain the allowed penetration level of small hydropower (SHP), the random characteristics of the load and SHP is considered and the corresponding stochastic model is established. For different regions differences of weather conditions, the concept of regional synchronization feature is put forward. Meanwhile, non-parametric kernel density estimation method is applied to SHP modelling. The capacity calculation is studied based on the node voltage under limited. In addition, the difference between the load and SHP models is considered and the correction coefficient is introduced in the formula. Finally, the reasonableness of the proposed algorithm is verified with the actual operation of the distribution network and stochastic simulation.