| Copula函数和AR模型在洪水随机模拟中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈士永,王祥三,张涛,赵春伟.Copula函数和AR模型在洪水随机模拟中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2009,27(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈士永 王祥三 张涛 赵春伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 棉花滩水电开发有限公司,福建,龙岩,364000
2. 武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部哲学社会科学重大基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用Copula函数构造了洪峰与历时的联合分布及非平稳自回归模型模拟截口序列,基于联合随机抽样方法进行大样本的洪水随机模拟并提出了一种新的洪水随机模拟方法.结果表明,该混合模型能较好地描述洪峰、历时的统计特性及相关关系,克服了传统模拟方法对历时描述较差的缺点.
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| 关 键 词： | 随机模拟 Copula函数 截口等量变换 自回归模型 |
Application of Copula Function and Autoregressive Model in Flood Hydrograph's Random Simulation |
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| CHEN Shiyong WANG Xiangsan ZHANG Tao ZHAO Chunwei.Application of Copula Function and Autoregressive Model in Flood Hydrograph''s Random Simulation[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2009,27(2). |
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| Authors: | CHEN Shiyong WANG Xiangsan ZHANG Tao ZHAO Chunwei |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Mianhuatan Hydroelectric Development Limited Company;Longyan 364000;China;2.College of Water Resources and Hydropower;Wuhan University;Wuhan 430072;China |
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| Abstract: | Measured section series can have better statistics regulation after equal quantity shift.Then,Copula function is used to construct multivariate joint distributions for flood peak and duration,and calculate sections by autoregressive model.Flood hydrograph with random sampling method based on joint distribution is simulated.This is a new method for flood random simulation.The results of this hybrid model show that statistics traits and related relations of flood peak,duration can be well described,and tradit... |
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| Keywords: | random simulation Copula function section's equal quantity shift autoregressive model |
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