基于概率分析的核电传热管降质失效评估方法研究

发展核电是国家能源安全战略的重要组成部分，核电安全是对核电事业发展的最基本要求。依据核电传热管的检测历史数据和专家数据，利用全概率理论和Bayes公式提出了对传热管降质完整性评估的概率计算方法。通过对应力腐蚀、疲劳损伤等影响因素的分析，实现了在不同应力腐蚀和疲劳损伤条件下对传热管降质分布的概率计算。该评估方法可以将多个影响因素共同作用的复杂问题，简化为单个影响因素的逐一修正问题，简化了计算和处理方法。该方法可为核电蒸汽发生器传热管的降质概率评估提供借鉴。

Research on Assessment Method of Nuclear Power Heat Transfer Tube Degradation Failure Based on Probability Analysis

The development of nuclear power is an important part of the national energy security strategy, and nuclear power safety is the most basic requirement for the development of nuclear power. Based on the testing historical data and expert data of nuclear power heat transfer tubes, a probability calculation method for evaluating the integrity of the degradation of the transmission tube is proposed by using the full probability theory and Bayes formula. Through the analysis of stress corrosion, fatigue damage and other factors, the probability calculation of heat transfer tube degradation distribution under different stress corrosion and fatigue damage conditions is realized. The assessment method can simplify the complex problem of multiple factors acting together into one-by-one correction problem of single factor, and simplify the calculation and treatment method. This method can be used for assessing the degradation probability of heat transfer tubes in nuclear power steam generator.