基于集对分析理论的云南省水资源承载力评估模型

综合考虑支持力指数、压力指数和协调指数三个因子,构建了基于集对分析理论的水资源承载力评估模型。筛选出影响水资源承载力变化的7个代表性指标,并针对指标的不确定性,运用集对分析和熵权赋值的方法,以云南省16个市、自治州为例,进行区域水资源承载力评价。结果表明:云南省各区域水资源承载力情况良好,多数地区水资源盈余,可开发利用价值较大,其中经济发展良好的地区人水矛盾较为突出,而各区域水资源承载力差异主要受当地社会经济发展水平和人口因素影响。基于集对分析理论的水资源承载力评估模型,能够有效地对高原区域水资源承载力进行评估,与其他方法对比表明,集对分析法具有客观性、可比性和公正性的优势,计算方法简单有效,评价结果直观。

Assessment model of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis in Yunnan Province

The paper overall thought the three factors such as support index, pressure index and coordination index and built the assessment model of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis.Taking 16 Cities and autonomous prefectures of Yunnan Province for examples,it selected seven representative indicators that affect the carrying capacity change of water resources, used the set pair analysis and entropy method to evaluate the carrying capacity of regional water resources because of the uncertainty of indicators.The results show that the carrying capacity of Yunnan regional water resources is in good condition.Most of the areas have a surplus of water and have great value of development and utilization. In those more developed areas, the conflicts between people and water is more serious.The differences of carrying capacity of water resources between region are mainly influenced by the local socio-economic development level and demographic factors.The assessment model of water resources carrying capacity based on set pair analysis can effectively assess the carrying capacity of water resource in high land.Result shows that the method has the advantages of objectivity, comparability and fairness, calculation method is simple and effective ,and evaluation outcome is visual.