底部支撑强劲牛市还将继续--2005年上半年黄金市场评述及展望

回顾了2005年上半年黄金市场的情况，从基本面、美元走势以及基金持仓等方面详细分析了价格的影响因素，并对下半年市场进行了分析预测。2005年上半年金价受美元的影响，在基金的推动下经历了一波三折的行情，最高达到了448．5美元／盎司。2005年上半年伦敦金价平均价为427．244美元止盎司，与去年同期相比上涨了6．6％。金价自2001年启动上涨以来，已经走过了连续4年的牛市，然而这种趋势似乎还远远没有结束。在全球地缘政治动荡不安、石油等能源价格高涨的状况下，金价还将继续走牛，预计下半年金价还将继续涨势，并有望冲破500美元／盎司的高点。

Bull Market still Run As Support Level of the Base is Strong --Gold Market Review and Future in First Half Year 2005

In this paper,the writer analyzed reasons of influencing price which include fundamental,US dollar and fund position,etc.Then it forecasted market status and price trend in second half year.First half year of 2005,gold average price in London rose by 6.6% over last year to 427.244 $/oz.Gold price has run 4 years bull since it began to soar in 2001.It may seem that the bull run of the last few years continues unchallenged.However,its more recent progress is far less exciting.The high for first half year of 2005 at 448.5 $/oz was also lower than that seen in the second year before last year.But we think it will rise still because of the society of turbulence and confusion and soaring oil price,etc.One can expect gold price will break the high of 500 $/oz in the second half year.