订单波动下的发动机销售预测

在当今日益变化的发动机市场环境下,竞争日趋激烈,订单常常发生波动。如何在订单波动下预测发动机的销售量,以合理安排生产,是企业管理面临的一个挑战。但预测方法会影响预测的准确性,对3种预测方法及其预测误差进行了比较和分析。以某发动机制造厂为例,说明如何根据订单波动情况,预测发动机的销售量。

Discussion of Engine Sales Prediction Under Fluctuated Market Demand

In today's ever-changing market, market competition is becoming fierce, which leads to market demand fluctuation. To predict engines sales under fluctuated market demand for a good arrangement of engine production is a challenge facing engine manufacturers. With the help of data mining theory and by analysis of historic data, the prediction engine sales can be obtained. Forecasting methods and their selection, however, have much effect on the result of prediction. Comparison and analysis of different predicting methods and their errors are discussed. The application of forecasting methods to foreseeing sales is explained based on the data of an engine manufacturer.