| 增长因子动态模型法Bayes可靠性评定 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋英杰,李欣欣,闫志强,谢红卫.增长因子动态模型法Bayes可靠性评定[J].计算机仿真,2008,25(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋英杰 李欣欣 闫志强 谢红卫 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科学技术大学机电工程与自动化学院,湖南,长沙,410073 |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目，国家部委级预研基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对于寿命分布为指数分布的可靠性增长试验,将历史数据进行折合,从而运用Bayes方法对失效率进行评估具有重要的意义.研究了增长因子折合法,针对可靠性增长多阶段试验的特点,对采用延缓纠正的可靠性增长模式进行分析,结合AMSAA模型,建立增长因子的动态模型,通过历史数据获得增长因子.运用数据折合和共轭分布,获得当前阶段的验后分布,然后,对多阶段可靠性增长的失效率作Bayes估计,给出了失效率的无偏估计和置信下限.最后通过实例给出了运用该方法进行分析的基本步骤,结果表明该方法具有一定的适用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 增长因子 动态模型法 可靠性增长 指数分布 |
The Bayesian Reliability Evaluation Based on Dynamic Modeling Method of Growth Factor |
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| JIANG Ying-jie,LI Xin-xin,YAN Zhi-qiang,XIE Hong-wei.The Bayesian Reliability Evaluation Based on Dynamic Modeling Method of Growth Factor[J].Computer Simulation,2008,25(8). |
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| Authors: | JIANG Ying-jie LI Xin-xin YAN Zhi-qiang XIE Hong-wei |
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| Affiliation: | JIANG Ying-jie,LI Xin-xin,YAN Zhi-qiang,XIE Hong-wei(College of Electromechanical Engineering , Automation,National Univ.of Defense Technology,Changsha Hunan 410073,China) |
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| Abstract: | As to the reliability growth test of exponential distribution,it is significant to evaluate failure rate in Bayesian method by conversing historical data.In this paper,the growth factor method is studied.According to the characteristics of multi-stage reliability growth testing,a dynamic model is built up based on AMSAA model in the mode of correction-delay.The growth factor is gained from historical data.The posterior distribution of every stage is calculated by data conversion and conjugate distribution.T... |
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| Keywords: | Growth factor Dynamic modeling method Reliability growth Exponential distribution |
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