实施《页岩气发展规划（2016—2020年）》对环境影响研究

大力推动页岩气开发利用,对于缓解中国天然气供需矛盾、优化能源消费结构具有重要的意义。但是在页岩气勘探开发的过程中,也会造成一定的污染。为此,应用定性与定量相结合的方法,分析研究了实施《页岩气发展规划（2016—2020年）》对环境的主要有利与不利影响。结果表明：实施《页岩气发展规划（2016—2020年）》的不利环境影响主要是水资源消耗、水环境污染、能源生产过程中温室气体排放和生态破坏等;有利环境影响主要是优化能源消费结构、能源利用过程中减少大气污染物和温室气体排放量等。根据测算,中国到2020年、2030年页岩气开采与储运全过程需要的水资源量分别为1 294.8×10⁴～2425.5×10⁴ m³、4 316.0×10⁴～8 084.9×10⁸ m³,CH₄排放量分别为9.78×10⁸ m³、32.6×10⁸ m³。按照替代终端消费散烧煤炭估算,到2020年,页岩气的大规模使用会实现年减排SO₂、NO_x、颗粒物（PM）和CO₂ 分别达35.11×10⁴ t、6.59×10⁴ t、67.14×10⁴t和6952.63×10⁴t,到2030年实现年减排SO2、NOx、PM和CO2 分别达118.02×10⁴ t、22.18×10⁴ t、225.6×10⁴ t和3.866 277×108 t,能源利用过程中产生的大气污染物和温室气体减排效果显著。

Environmental impacts of the implementation of "Shale Gas Development Programming during the Chinese National 13th Five-Year (2016–2020) Plan"

To promote the development and utilization of shale gas in China is of great significance to easing natural gas supply-demand contradiction, optimizing energy consumption structure as well as alleviating air pollution. In this paper, both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to study the positive and negative impacts of the implementation of "Shale Gas Development Programming during the Chinese National 13th Five-Year (2016–2020) Plan" on environment. The disadvantages mainly include water resources consumption, water environment pollution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ecological threat, while the advantages are concluded as optimizing energy consumption structures, reducing air pollutants and GHG emissions and so on. It is also predicted that water resources needed in the whole process of shale gas production and storage and transportation will be 12.948–24.255 million and 43.160–80.849 million cubic meters respectively in 2020 and 2030, and CH₄ emissions are 0.978 billion and 3.26 billion cubic meters respectively. According to the estimation based on the hypothesis that bulk coal in terminal energy consumption will be replaced, the annual emission reduction of SO2, NO_x, PM and CO₂ will reach 0.351 1 million, 0.065 9 million tons, 0.671 4 million and 69.526 3 million tons respectively by 2020, and the annual emission reduction of SO₂, NOx, PM and CO₂ will reach 1.180 2 million, 0.221 8 million, 2.256 million and 386.627 7 million tons respectively by 2030. In that way, the reduction effects of air pollutants and GHG emissions will be remarkable.