环境约束下全要素能源效率及其影响因素分析:基于山东省17个地级市面板数据的实证研究

基于2007-2014年山东省17个地级市的面板数据，运用修正的可变规模报酬超效率DEA模型测算环境约束下各地级市的全要素能源效率，利用Tobit模型分析产业结构、能源消费结构、技术进步、对外贸易水平对山东省整体和省内各区域全要素能源效率的影响。结果表明，2007-2014年山东省全要素能源效率呈上升趋势，各地市之间存在显著差异，存在较大的节能减排空间；产业结构和能源消费结构对全要素能源效率具有显著的负向影响，技术进步、对外贸易水平的影响不显著，并且各因素对各地区能源效率的影响程度存在差异。因此，山东省要提高全要素能源效率，应优化产业结构和能源消费结构，完善能源消费强度和消费总量“双控”机制；充分利用沿海的独特区位优势，实施更加积极主动的开放战略，优化开放布局；继续推进技术进步，实现各地市的协同发展。

TOTAL FACTORS ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS CONSTRAINED BY ENVIRONMENT BASED ON SHANDONG'S 17 PREFECTURES' PANEL DATA

This paper, based on Shandong's 17 prefectures panel data from 2007-2014, uses supper efficiency DEA model of modified variable scale pay to calculate their total factors energy efficiency under the constraint of environment, and applies Tobit model to analyze the influence of industrial structure, energy consumption structure, technical innovation and foreign trade on the entire Shandong province and its prefectures. From 2007-2014 Shandong's total factors energy efficiency shows a rising trend, but largely different among its prefectures, with a room for saving energy and reducing emission. Industrial structure and energy consumption structure are outstandingly negatively influencing the total factors energy efficiency, while technical innovation and foreign trade are not. Each factor in influence varies with regions. This paper presents suggestions for Shandong province increasing total factors energy efficiency from optimizing industrial structure and energy consumption structure, controlling energy consumption intensity and volume, using advantage of coastal locality to carry out active opening strategy, promoting technical innovation and realizing a synchronized development.