基于GST的甘肃省产业结构与用水系统分析

以甘肃省2000—2010年统计数据为依据,采用相关分析法和灰色系统理论(GST),对全省及地级行政区的产业结构与产业用水系统进行了定量分析和比较。结果表明:①第一产业构成的下降对产业用水影响很小,第二产业、第三产业构成每增长1%,产业用水将分别减少0.801%和0.730%;②第一产业、第二产业构成与其用水比例关系较为显著,第一产业构成比例每降低1%,其相应的用水比例仅下降0.127%,第二产业构成比例每增长1%,其相应的用水比例将下降0.468%;③第一产业产值与产业用水的综合关联度相对最高,第二产业次之,第三产业相对最小;④大力发展第二产业,积极推动第三产业的发展,限制或适当压缩第一产业的发展规模,是甘肃产业结构调整的方向。

Analysis of the Industrial Structure and Water Consumption System of Gansu Province Based on GST

Based on the statistical data of Gansu Province in the period of 2000—2010,correlation analysis and grey system theory(GST) were applied to quantitatively analyze and compare the industrial structure and industrial water consumption system in the entire province as well as prefecture-level administrative divisions.The results show that:a)The drop of the primary industry in the provincial industry constitution has little influence to the industrial water consumption,and every 1% increase in the constitution by the second and tertiary industries results in the 0.801% and 0.730% decrease in the industrial water consumption respectively.b)The structural correlation between the provincial primary and second industries and water usage is obvious,every 1% drop of the primary industry in the composition results in only 0.127% deduction in its water consumption,and every 1% increase in the composition by the second industrial makes its water proportion drop 0.468%.c)The comprehensive correlation between the primary industry and industrial water usage is the highest in the province,followed by the second industry,and that of the tertiary industry is the lowest.d)It is the direction of industrial restructuring of Gansu Province to vigorously develop the secondary industry,actively promote the development of tertiary industry and restrict or reduce the pressure on the development scale of the primary industry.