A novel method for reliability and risk evaluation of wind energy conversion systems considering wind speed correlation

This paper investigates an analytical approach for the reliability modeling of doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbines. At present, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, wind speed and wind turbine generator outage have not been addressed simultaneously. In this paper, a novel methodology based on the Weibull- Markov method is proposed for evaluating the probabilistic reliability of the bulk electric power systems, including DFIG wind turbines, considering wind speed and wind turbine generator outage. The proposed model is presented in terms of appropriate wind speed modeling as well as capacity outage probability table (COPT), considering component failures of the wind turbine generators. Based on the proposed method, the COPT of the wind farm has been developed and utilized on the IEEE RBTS to estimate the well-known reliability and sensitive indices. The simulation results reveal the importance of inclusion of wind turbine generator outage as well as wind speed in the reliability assessment of the wind farms. Moreover, the proposed method reduces the complexity of using analytical methods and provides an accurate reliability model for the wind turbines. Furthermore, several case studies are considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in practical applications.