基于Verhulst模型的软土路基沉降预测

目的为提高软土路基的工后沉降量预测精度,给设计和造价控制提供反馈信息.方法在深入分析沉降发生发展规律的基础上,引入Verhulst模型,采用改进的曲线拟合的经验计算方法,挖掘施工期的实测数据所蕴含的信息.结果计算表明:该方法拟合误差小,后期沉降预测准.结论在模型参数的反演上运用改进的非线性拟合算法,可避免常用的灰色建模方式下的理论缺陷和其他处理方法的弊端;实例分析表明,本方法的适应性较好,预测精度也有所提高.

The prediction of soft clay roadbed settlement based on Verhulst Model

In order to predict the post-construction settlement,based on a thorough analysis on the law of settlement development,citing the Verhulst model which good reflect its main characteristic,using the curve fitting method,mining the information contained in the construction data;betakes the improvement non-linear fitting algorithm on the model parameter inversion.Finding that:it is an effective way to avoid the common gray modeling approach theory's flaw and other processing method's malpractices.The example computation indicates that,the compatibility of the proposed method is better,and the forecast precision also has the enhancement.