基于双曲型风险决策模型和GIS的城市燃气管道风险评估

客观有效的进行城市燃气管道风险评估对于燃气企业的安全运行和科学管理具有重要的意义。采用定量风险评价方法，利用收集的历史数据分析燃气管道失效概率、失效后造成的经济损失，使用双曲型理论及回归分析法建立城市燃气管道双曲型风险决策模型来判断燃气管道的风险可接受性，并根据GIS技术，以SUPERMAP为开发平台，将燃气管道风险水平进行可视化表达。在实例中应用双曲型风险决策模型和GIS技术，结果表明：在管道风险评估中，该模型与GIS的结合能够客观的反应燃气管道的风险水平，对城市燃气管道安全运行提供科学决策依据。

City Gas Pipeline Risk Assessment Research Based on Hyperbolic Risk Decision Model and GIS

To achieve the safe operation and scientific management,it is very important for the gas enterprise to do the objective risk assessment of city gas pipeline.The quantitative risk assessment method is adopted.Firstly, analyse the gas pipeline failure probability and the economic loss by using the historical data; Next, establish the city gas pipeline hyperbolic risk decision model to judge the gas pipeline risk acceptability by using the hyperbolic theory and regression analysis method;Lastly, the gas pipeline risk level is visually expressed by using GIS technology and taking SUPERMAP as development platform.Examples show that the hyperholic risk decision model and GIS technology applied to pipeline risk assessment can objectively reflect the gas pipeline risk and provide scientific decision for the safe operation of city gas pipeline.