| 1978-2010年山东省GDP与财政收入关系的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾康华,陈菁.1978-2010年山东省GDP与财政收入关系的实证分析[J].北京机械工业学院学报,2012(3):26-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾康华 陈菁 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目资助（09BZZ036） |
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| 摘 要： | 对山东省1978—2010年的GDP和财政收入进行了协整分析，结果表明二者之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看，山东省财政收入和GDP之间存在动态调整机制。格兰杰因果关系检验表明，GDP与财政收入之间存在因果关系。同时，利用两线段模型考察了1994年分税制改革对山东省财政收入变化的显著影响。
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| 关 键 词： | GDP 财政收入 分税制 |
Empirical analysis of the relationship between GDP and fiscal revenue in Shandong Province from 1979 -2010 |
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| ZENG Kang-hua,CHEN Jing.Empirical analysis of the relationship between GDP and fiscal revenue in Shandong Province from 1979 -2010[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Machinery,2012(3):26-29. |
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| Authors: | ZENG Kang-hua CHEN Jing |
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| Affiliation: | ( School of Public Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China) |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between GDP and fiscal revenue in Shandong Province from the year 1997 -2010 is studied through cointegration anlaysis. The results show that there is a long-term stability of the cointegration relationship between the two factors. The error correction model suggests a dynamic adjustment mechanism between fiscal revenue and GDP in Shandong Province. Granger causality test shows that there is a causal relationship between GDP and fiscal revenue. At the same time, a two- segment model is used to examine the significant affects of tax system reform in 1994 on financial revenue of the province. |
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| Keywords: | GDP fiscal revenue tax system |
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