极大似然估计法在高压断路器可靠性分析中的应用

为了提出一种在非完全寿命试验条件下判别高压断路器可靠性的方法,为进一步开展相关研究提供理论依据，促进高压电器行业的发展，结合高压断路器寿命分布实例，对目前有关高压断路器可靠性研究的现状进行分析，提出了建立高压断路器寿命可靠性判别模型的基本方法，并应用数学方法对其进行分析和判别.通过对断路器寿命的均值和方差进行估计，并应用拟牛顿算法对其求解，判断出高压断路器首次故障时间.通过实例分析、模型的建立和数学计算，提出的适用于寿命周期较长的高压断路器寿命可靠性的判定方法及计算结果，对评价高压断路器可靠性等技术参数具有指导意义，对于研究如何判断高压断路器可靠性有一定的理论价值和实际意义.

Application of maxi-likelihood estimation method in analysis of high voltage circuit breaker

In order to put forward a method to judge the reliability of high voltage circuit breaker(HVCB) under the non-complete life span trial conditions,and to provide some theoretical evidence for further relevant research and development of high voltage electric appliance,the present situations of the research on the reliability of HVCB has been analyzed.And the basic method to judge the reliability of the models of the life span for HVCB has been proposed,analyzed and judged using the mathematical approach.Through estimating the mean value and variance of the life span,and applying the quasi-Newton algorithm,the first breakdown time of HVCB can be judged.By analyzing the demonstrated example,establishing the model and calculating,the judgement method for the reliability of HVCB with long life span is presented,which is instructive to assess the technical parameter such as the reliability of HVCB and which has theoretical and practical meaning to research how to judge the reliability of HVCB.