基于系统多层次灰色模型的洪灾风险综合评价方法-以鄱阳湖流域为例 |
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作者姓名: | 徐镇凯 黄海鹏 魏博文 刘成林 |
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作者单位: | 南昌大学建筑工程学院, 南昌330031 |
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基金项目: | 国家自然科学基金( 41261053) |
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摘 要: | 洪水灾害风险评价是一个多因素协同影响效应的系统过程。在分析洪水风险系统的基础上,并从洪水风险评估的角度,综合考虑了致灾因子,孕灾环境和承灾体的相关因素,构建了洪水灾害风险综合评价体系,融合灰色聚类法与层次分析的数据处理优势,提出了适应洪水灾害风险预测的系统多层次灰色综合评价方法。以鄱阳湖流域为例,通过定性与定量分析相结合,对鄱阳湖流域洪水风险系统进行了综合评价,为流域内洪水灾害风险综合评价提供了参考依据。
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关 键 词: | 洪水风险 综合评价 层次分析 灰色聚类法 定性 定量 鄱阳湖流域 |
Comprehensive evaluation method of flood risk based on mul ti2level gray system model
- a case study in Poyang Lake Basin |
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Authors: | XU Zhen- kai H UANG Ha i-peng WEI Bo-w en LIU Chen-lin |
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Affiliation: | College of Civil E ngineer ing, N anchang Univers ity , Nanchang 330031, China) |
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Abstract: | Floo d r isk assessment is a systematic pro cess with t he synerg y effects betw een mult iple factor s. Based o n the analy sis
of flood r isk system, a compr ehensive flo od r isk assessment system w as co nstr ucted in consideratio n o f the fact ors including the
disaster2inducing facto rs, disaster2inducing environment, and disast er bear ing bo dy f rom the perspect ive of flo od r isk evaluation.
The data pro cessing advantag es o f gr ay cluster ing method and analytical hier archy pr ocess( AH P) w ere integ rated and a com2
prehensive evaluat ion method o f multi2 level g ray system w as pro po sed to adapt the flo od disaster r isk predictio n. T he method
was applied in the Poy ang Lake Basin. The combinatio n of qualitative and quantitativ e analy sis of the flo od r isk system in the
Poy ang Lake Basin can pro vide reference for the compr ehensive evaluat ion of floo d r isk in the basin. |
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Keywords: | flo od disaster r isk compr ehensiv e evaluation AH P gr ay clustering met ho d qualit ative quantitativ e Po yang Lake
Basin |
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