设计降雨特征对城市内涝模拟结果的影响分析

降雨是城市内涝的主要诱因之一，不同降雨特征对于城市内涝风险的影响也有所区别。为了进一步挖掘降雨特征对城市内涝风险的影响，采用综合流域排水模型（InfoWorks ICM）构建了我国南方某城市的内涝模型，系统分析了设计降雨的雨型和历时特征对城市内涝模拟结果的影响。在4个重现期的3种降雨雨型和3个降雨历时条件下，共计36个不同降雨情景对研究区的内涝情况进行模拟。通过对比不同模拟情景下的积水深度、积水面积以及积水量等结果发现：在相同降雨雨型和重现期条件下，降雨历时对积水深度的影响有一定的差别；在不同降雨雨型和降雨历时模拟情景中，积水点的位置基本保持一致，而积水面积受降雨雨型和降雨历时的双重影响；峰值积水量受降雨雨型影响较大，受降雨历时影响较小，而积水总量受降雨历时影响较大，受降雨雨型影响较小。研究中量化分析了不同设计降雨特征对城市内涝模拟结果的影响，旨在为合理地开展城市内涝预警以及应急管理等工作提供依据。

Design rainfall characteristics affects urban flood inundation simulation

Rainfall is one of the leading causes of urban flood inundation, and different rainfall characteristics have different influences on the urban flood inundation risk. In order to investigate the influences, an urban flood inundation model of a southern city in China was established to systematically analyze the influence of design rainfall pattern and duration characteristics on urban flood simulation results with the application of the integrated catchment model (InfoWorks ICM). To evaluate flood inundation risk in the study area, 3 rainfall patterns and 3 rainfall duration under 4 return periods were chosen for the combinations of a total of 36 different design rainfall scenarios. By comparing the results of the scenarios in terms of inundation depth, inundation area and inundation volume, it was found that under the same rainfall pattern and return period, the influence of rainfall duration on inundation depth varies within a certain range; in all scenarios of different rainfall patterns and duration, the locations of the inundation sites basically remain the same; the inundation area is affected by both rainfall patterns and duration, peak inundation volume is influenced more by rainfall patterns than by rainfall duration, but total inundation volume is influenced more by rainfall duration and less by rainfall patterns. This study quantified the influence of different design rainfall characteristics on the urban flood inundation simulation results which aims to provide a technical basis for urban flood inundation early warning and emergency management.