基于需求更新的救灾品配送公平与效率协调模型

鉴于需求准确度与救灾品配送效率之间的悖反关系,研究了基于需求更新的救灾品配送效率与公平问题.通过对某市民政局进行调研,了解到台风灾害发生时的需求变化规律,设计一种通过已知需求灾区对未知需求灾区的需求进行贝叶斯更新的需求更新方式,由此建立救灾品配送模型.将该模型应用于某台风救灾实例,通过实例分析表明了该模型的求解速率与精度,并找到了最优"决策点",实现了救灾品配送公平与效率的平衡.

Coordination between efficiency and equity in relief allocation problem via demand updates

Considering the trade-off between demand accuracy and relief allocation efficiency, a relief allocation problem based on demand updates is addressed. The rule of demand updating when the typhoon disaster occurred is learned by municipal bureau of civil affairs, thereby a method of demand updating, which uses the known demand to update the unknown demand, is proposed to model the addressed problem. Then the model is applied to an example of the post-disaster rescue after the destruction of typhoon. Computational results show the high velocity and accuracy of the model, and the optimal “decision-making point” is found to coordinate efficiency and equity well.