基于原型监测资料的特高拱坝变形实时风险率模型

混凝土坝风险率分析模型通常基于结构极限状态功能函数对单个监测点一维时间序列建模，未考虑变形监测点之间的相关性及多重共线性问题。基于原型监测资料，考虑各分区所有测点的相关性及不同分区变形之间的协同性，引入面板数据理论对特高拱坝监测点进行聚类分区，在拟定单测点风险率函数的基础上，提出计算特高拱坝变形分区单测点实时风险率的方法，基于Copula函数进一步构建基于原型监测资料的特高拱坝整体实时风险率分析模型。实例分析表明，所构建的模型确定了依据大坝长序列立体监测数据建立变形实测效应量与风险率的函数关系，可有效分析特高拱坝各分区变形风险率及整体变形风险率，能够客观刻画特高拱坝整体风险率变化的基本规律。

Real time risk rate model for deformation of ultra high arch dams based on prototype monitoring data

The risk rate analysis model of concrete dams is usually used for one dimensional time series of individual monitoring points based on the structure limit state function, without considering the correlation and multicollinearity between deformation monitoring points. Based on the prototype monitoring data, considering the correlation of all monitoring points in each partition and the synergy of the deformation in different partitions, the panel data theory is introduced for the cluster partition of the monitoring points of ultra high arch dams, and the calculation method of real time single monitoring point risk rate of ultra high arch dam deformation partition is proposed based on the estimated single monitoring point risk rate function. Then the overall real time risk rate analysis model of ultra high arch dams based on prototype monitoring data is further constructed combined with Copula function. The case analysis shows that the constructed model establishes the functional relationship between the actual deformation effect and the risk rate based on the dam long time series monitoring data. It can effectively analyze the deformation risk rate of each partition and the whole dam, and can objectively describe the basic law of the overall risk rate change of ultra high arch dams.