一种基于状态转移的水利工程风险动态管理研究

目前在大规模水利工程建设中，静态的风险管理方式已经不适应现代水利工程建设中复杂多变的情况。在工程风险状态所包括的发生概率、损失大小、可预测性、可控制性和可转移性5个参数的基础上，以时间和空间为变量来探究工程风险状态转移规律，建立工程风险状态转移模型，探讨了工程风险随着时间和空间变化而转移的表示方式。通过南水北调中线沙河至黄河南总干渠工程实例分析表明，工程风险状态转移模型具有一定的实用性，可为工程风险管理人员从总体上把握工程风险变化趋势提供了一种科学的方法。

Study on dynamic risk management of water resources project based on state transition

In the large-scale construction of water resources projects,the conventional static risk management is incompatible with modern water resources project construction characterized as complicated and changeable.A dynamic risk management mode is put forward,namely,establishing a state-transition model for project risk on the basis of 5 risk parameters such as probability,loss,predictability,controllability and transferability,to seek the variation regularity of project risk state transition with the variables of time and space,and an representation method of the project risk varying with time and space is explored.The main channel from Shahe River to the south of Yellow River of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is taken as an example,and it is shown that the model is practical.