固定间隔期补充定货策略中牛鞭效应的计算

通过将终端需求假设为一个一阶自回归过程，用数学分析的方法，对一个用固定间隔期补充定货策略供应链系统的需求波动过程进行了分析和研究，结果表明：即使供应链系统中不存在独立的预测和决策，定货提前期、定货方式等因素也可能会导致牛鞭效应的产生，并得出了此过程所产生的牛鞭效应计算公式，分析总结了牛鞭效应对供应链系统所带来的危害及其预防措施．

Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in the Fixed-Interval Order-up-to Policy Supply Chain

Demand fluctuation and information distortion have been the important problems of supply chain management for a long time. On the assumption that the terminal demand is an AR(1) process, the authors study the increasing demand variability in multiple-stage supply chains of fixed-interval order-up-to policy using the mathematical analysis method. Factors such as batch ordering and lead time may result the bullwhip effect even if no independent forecasting or desion-making exists in the supply chain. A formula quantifying the bullwhip effect is acquired and the impact of the bullwhip effect upon supply chain management is analyzed. Finally, some tactics preventing bullwhip effect from producing are summarized.