一种变权灰色组合预测模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用

提出了一种基于灰色理论的中长期负荷变权组合预测模型,通过分析负荷曲线走向,对不同变化趋势的阶段组合后建立不同的灰色模型分别进行预测,通过基于累加残差的变权组合预测得到最终结果,简单有效地将变权组合预测应用到电力负荷预测中.实例计算证明了该模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的有效性,该模型兼具了灰色模型的简单性和变权组合预测的精确性.

GRAY VARIABLE WEIGHT COMBINATION MODEL FOR MIDDLE AND LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING

A gray theory based middle and long term load forecasting method using variable weight combination model is proposed. Analyzing the trend of load curve, the loads at different stages are respectively forecasted with different gray models established by combining the stages with different variation trends, then through the variable weight combination forecasting based on accumulating residual errors the final result is obtained. The proposed method simply and effectively realizes the application of variable weight combination prediction to load forecasting. Case calculation results show that the proposed method possesses both simplicity of gray model and accuracy of variable weight combination prediction, so it is effective in middle and long tem load forecasting.