市场经济条件下油气需求预测集成系统研究

在市场经济条件下开展油气需求预测活动，无论对于宏观能源管理还是对于油气生产企业来讲都是至关重要的，因此，对油气需求预测方法进行了讨论，首先从预测的经济环境，预测方法与预测数据等方面，指出了现存的一些预测方法和结论的不足之处；其次提出了油气需求预测集成系统的概念，分析了该系统的性质，说明了与传统预测模式的不同之处；最后阐述了建立油气需求集成系统的途径。

An Integrated Forecast System for Oil and Gas Demand under the Condition of Market Economy

Under the condition of market economy, it is vital for both macroenergy management and petroleum production businesses to establish a forecast system for petroleum demand. Forecasting oil and gas demand is discussedmethodologically. First,limits and shortcomings of present forecast methods and their conclusions are shown. A concept of integrated forecast system for oil and gas demand is developed, and its characteristics are presented. Finally, a way to establish the system is discussed.