全球LNG贸易特征与发展趋势

近年全球LNG贸易持续升温，2019年LNG贸易总量创2010年来最大增速，年增长率为13%，同时在新增液化产能、新增投资和现货价格等方面均创下新纪录。2020年全球LNG贸易量逆势增长，预计达到4950×108m3，同比增长2%。由于全球经济发展和天然气供需形势的不确定性增加，LNG贸易在供应能力、合同条款和定价机制等方面也在发生变化。总体上，2030年前全球LNG供应宽松，贸易保持增长势头，中短期合同与现货贸易份额持续增加，越来越多的新签合同将选择多元化定价和与气价挂钩的定价方式。供需双方为降低风险、提高收益，通常选择投资组合方式参与市场竞争，全球LNG市场流动性增强将促进全球化统一天然气市场的形成。提出了我国LNG贸易策略3点建议：一是利用全球LNG市场供需长期宽松的窗口期，增加进口气来源，提高天然气安全保供能力；二是把握LNG定价方式多元化时期，推动建立联合议价机制，提升天然气定价话语权；三是建立健全天然气统一进口管理和监管的法律法规体系，合理配置资源，保障我国天然气市场安全健康稳定发展。

Global LNG Trade Characteristics and Development Trend

Global LNG trade has been rising in recent years. The year of 2019 saw the highest growth rate of LNG trade volume since 2010. The annual growth rate is 13 percent. Meanwhile, global LNG sets a record high for newly-additional liquefied productivity, newly-additional investment and spot prices. Global LNG trade volume is estimated to reach 4950×108m3 in 2020, up 2 percent from the previous year. Thanks to a higher uncertainty of global economic recovery and natural gas demand-supply, LNG trade is changing in the areas of supply capacity, contract clauses and prizing mechanism. Generally speaking, global LNG supply is adequate before 2030, with a momentum for trade growth. The shares of the medium- and short-term contracts and spot trade are continually on the rise. More and more new contracts will choose the diversified and gas-to-gas index pricing methods. The supplier and consumer usually take part in market competitions by means of a portfolio to reduce the risks for higher profits. A higher flowability of global LNG market will promote formation of a unified global natural gas market. This paper puts forth three suggestions on China’s LNG trade policies. First of all, China should take advantage of the long-term abundant window stage of global LNG market supply and demand to increase gas import sources and enhance the guarantee capacity for natural gas supplies. Secondly, China should use the time for diversification of LNG pricing methods to promote establishment of the joint bargaining mechanism for a louder voice in natural gas prizing. Thirdly, China should establish and perfect the legal system for unified management and supervision of natural gas imports and reasonably distribute the resources to safeguard a healthy and stable development of China’s natural gas market.