2020年我国能源电力消费及碳排放强度情景分析

在工业化和现代化的进程中,无论是总量还是人均,我国能源和电力消费都将快速增长,且用电量的增速更快于能源消费。我国低碳经济的发展应以不断降低碳排放强度为目标,从优化产业结构和优化能源消费结构2方面同时着手实施,情景分析表明,我国2020年碳排放强度有望比2007年降低33%～37%。

Scenario Analyses of China's Energy and Power Use and Carbon Emission in 2020

In the process of industrialization and modernization in China, the primary energy and power consumption, whether gross or per capita, will still grow rather rapidly, with power consumption increasing more dramatically. The objectives of developing low-carbon economy in China should continuously lower specific carbon intensity, which means industrial structure and energy mix should be optimized simultaneously. Scenario analyses show that the carbon intensity of China in 2020 may be 33 % -37% less than that of 2007.