基于模糊层次分析法的某尾矿库风险综合评价

尾矿库是矿山安全生产中重大危险源之一,因此如何确保其运行中安全可靠、风险大小为大家所接受至关重要。采用模糊层次分析模型对尾矿库进行定量综合风险评价,首先利用层次分析法,结合尾矿库运行中事故频次和特点建立了尾矿库三级评价指标体系;然后针对各级指标分别建立判断矩阵并计算其权重;最后利用模糊评价法对尾矿库风险等级进行综合分析,得出该尾矿库风险等级为"正常库"。同时,分析了评价体系中各指标权重大小对尾矿库安全稳定性的影响,建议加强对权重较大评价指标的管理。针对尾矿库安全风险评价的定量化难的问题,模糊层次分析法为尾矿库风险定量化评价提供一种新的思路和方法。

SYNTHESIZED ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR TAILINGS RESERVOIR RISK BASED ON FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Tailings reservoir is one of the major hazards in mine production,therefore,how to ensure that the Tailings reservoir is running safely and reliably and the magnitude of the risk is in an scope accepted is essential. To solve this problem,fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model is used to assess the risk of tailings reservoir; using the analytic hierarchy process,combined with the accident frequency and characteristics of the operation of tailings reservoir,the tailings reservoir three levels evaluation index system is firstly established. And then,judgment matrix of indicators at all levels is established to calculate its weight. Finally,using fuzzy evaluation method,the level of risk of the tailings reservoir is comprehensively analyzed,and it is concluded that the tailings reservoir risk level is the normal one. The same time,the weight of each indicator in evaluation system how to impact on the security and stability of the tailings reservoir is analyzing,it is proposed to strengthen the management of evaluation of higher weight fuzzy analytic hierarchy process can provide a new way of thinking and methods for the quantitative evaluation of the risk of tailings reservoir.