规划阶段水资源配置模型和配置风险研究

分析了水资源规划阶段的两次水资源配置思路,即在考虑流域生态环境用水和流域公共用水的前提下,将流域水资源量分配到各个区域;按照各省分配的份额,在省内进行再配置。针对不同的配置阶段,给出了相对缺水量最小和相对综合效益最大的配置模型。同时,对水资源配置中存在的不确定性和风险进行了分析。

Model and Risk Analysis in Water Resources Allocation in Program Period

Two phases on water resources allocation are analyzed in program period,i.e.the water quantity is divided to each province on the premise of environment and public water demand,and then the water is allocated to each water-user respectively.The different allocation model is put forward according to different phases: the minimum comparatively-water shortage for the first phase,and the maximum comprehensive benefit for the second one.It is pointed out that the parameters,such as water demand,available water supply,benefit coefficients and the benefit of water supply are all variable influencing the allocation effect.It is recommended to use sense analysis method to reduce the allocation risk.