| 运载火箭研制经费估算方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡晓东,刘均华,王易南.运载火箭研制经费估算方法[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2010(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡晓东 刘均华 王易南 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京,100191;北京宇航系统工程研究所,北京,100076;北京宇航系统工程研究所,北京,100076 |
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| 摘 要： | 运载火箭研制经费估算和管理是型号研制的重要组成部分.提出运载火箭的3步经费估算方法,首先利用层次分析法确定经费估算范围;然后根据型号研制的具体情况筛选技术参数,利用偏最小二乘法和基于主成分的神经网络法确定经费的预测基准;最后利用数学规划方法对两种方法的估算结果进行综合修正和优化.
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| 关 键 词： | 运载火箭 经费估算 层次分析法 神经网络法 |
Research on Development Cost Estimation for Launch Vehicle |
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| Hu Xiaodong,Liu Junhua,Wang Yinan.Research on Development Cost Estimation for Launch Vehicle[J].Missiles and Space Vehicles,2010(3). |
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| Authors: | Hu Xiaodong Liu Junhua Wang Yinan |
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| Affiliation: | Hu Xiaodong1,Liu Junhua2,Wang Yinan2(1.School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Beijing,100191,2.Beijing Institute of Space System Engineering,100076) |
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| Abstract: | Cost estimation and management plays an important part in launch vehicle development.A three-stage estimation method is given.Firstly,general range of research cost is estimated by analytical hierarchy process(AHP).Then,the PLS model and the back propagation neural network model based on principal component analysis are respectively established to predict the basic value of research cost.Finally,the results above are revised and optimized by mathematic programming method. |
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| Keywords: | Launch vehicle Cost estimation Analytical hierarchy process Back propagation neural network |
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