| 基于多元线性回归模型的并网光伏发电系统发电量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李光明,刘祖明,何京鸿,赵恒利,张树明. 基于多元线性回归模型的并网光伏发电系统发电量预测研究[J]. 现代电力, 2011, 28(2): 43-48 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李光明 刘祖明 何京鸿 赵恒利 张树明 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南师范大学太阳能研究所/教育部可再生能源材料先进技术与制备重点实验室,云南昆明,650092 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了较为准确地对并网光伏发电系统的发电量做出预测,提高光伏并网后电网的安全性及稳定性。本文对硅太阳电池单一组件发电功率进行了理论计算,建立了一种以辐射量及组件温度为变量的多元线性回归光伏发电功率及发电量预测模型。设计了系统测试方案,采集了光伏系统在晴天I、多云II、阴转多云或晴转多云III 3类天气下的运行数据,依据预测模型求解出3种不同天气类型下的预测回归方程,并把预测模型用于2kW并网光伏系统。预测结果表明,该预测方法简单、预测精度高,能解决系统的随机性问题,提高系统的稳定运行能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 光伏系统 随机性 线性回归 预测模型 精确性 |
Study on the Generator Forecasting of Grid-connected PV Power System Based on Multivariate Linear Regression Model |
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| Li Guangming,Liu Zuming,He Jinghong,Zhao Hengli,Zhang Shuming. Study on the Generator Forecasting of Grid-connected PV Power System Based on Multivariate Linear Regression Model[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2011, 28(2): 43-48 |
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| Authors: | Li Guangming Liu Zuming He Jinghong Zhao Hengli Zhang Shuming |
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| Affiliation: | Li Guangming,Liu Zuming,He Jinghong,Zhao Hengli,Zhang Shuming(Solar Energy Research Institute of Yunnan Normal University,Key Laboratory of Renewable EnergyAdvanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology,Ministry of Education,Kunming 650092,China) |
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| Abstract: | To accurately forecast the generator of grid-connected PV power system and to improve its security and stability,the output power of a single component of silicon solar cell is calculated in this paper.In addition,a multivariate linear regression forecasting model is proposed with variables of radiation and temperature.A test scheme was designed firstly,then operation data obtained from the PV system in sunny day,cloudy day and the day from fine to cloudy or the day from overcast to cloudy is collected.Fina... |
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| Keywords: | PV system stochastic linear regression forecast model accuracy |
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