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A spatially distributed risk screening tool to assess climate and land use change impacts on water-related ecosystem services |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of Patras, Department of Biology, Laboratory of Botany, GR-26504 Patras, Greece;2. University of Patras, Department of Civil Engineering, Environmental Engineering Laboratory, GR-26504 Patras, Greece;3. University of Patras, Department of Economics, GR-26504 Patras, Greece;4. University of Patras, Department of Environmental Engineering, G. Seferi 2, Agrinio, Greece;5. Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters, Anavissos, Greece;6. Panteion University, University Research Institute of Urban Environment and Human Resources, Department of Economics and Regional Development, Athens, Greece;7. Piraeus Bank, Environment Unit, Athens, Greece |
| Abstract: | To support the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), and as part of a tiered approach to prioritise detailed modelling, a high-level screening methodology has been developed to assess the vulnerability of water-related ecosystem services (ES) to future change. The approach incorporates a range of spatially distributed scenarios of land use and climate, which are used as inputs to a qualitative risk assessment model underpinned by expert opinion. The method makes use of widely available datasets and provides a structured way of capturing and “codifying” expert knowledge, as well as for assessing the degree of consensus between different expert groups. The range of model output reflects uncertainty in both the expert-derived assumptions and the climate & land use simulations considered. The approach has been developed in collaboration with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and applied in Scotland to support the second cycle of River Basin Management Planning. |
| Keywords: | Ecosystem services Land use Climate change Adaptation Qualitative risk assessment Water resources ES"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0045"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Ecosystem Service(s) EU"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0055"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"European Union FF"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0065"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Future Flows IPCC"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0075"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LCA2050"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0085"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Land Capability for Agriculture 2050 LCF"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0095"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Land Capability for Forestry LCM2007"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0105"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Land Cover Map 2007 LCMS1988"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0115"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Land Cover Map of Scotland 1988 PET"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0125"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Potential Evapotranspiration RBMP"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0135"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"River Basin Management Plan(ning) SEPA"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0145"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Scottish Environment Protection Agency UKCP09"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0155"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"United Kingdom Climate Projections 2009 WFD"} {"#name":"keyword" "$":{"id":"kwrd0165"} "$$":[{"#name":"text" "_":"Water Framework Directive |
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