荣成市养老机构设施需求的空间协调性分析

基于2000年第五次人口普查和2010年第六次人口普查数据，运用年龄移算法，预测2035年荣成市各乡镇、街道的老年人口数；运用ArcGIS中空间分析法，分析2010年和2035年荣成市各乡镇、街道老年人口与养老机构的空间分布特征。研究表明：2010—2035年荣成市各乡镇、街道老年人口呈快速增长阶段，崖头街道、港湾街道、寻山街道和斥山街道老年人口呈增长状态；2010—2035年老年人口在空间聚集度上存在差异，南部和中部为峰值区，北部老年人口聚集度较低。养老机构设施空间分布与老年人口空间分布整体一致，但也存在差异现象，崖头街道和港湾街道为老年人口聚集区，但养老机构设施布局明显不足。

Research on the Spatial Coordination Analysis of Facility Demand of Elderly Care Institutions in Rongcheng City

Based on the data of the fifth census in 2000 and the sixth census in 2010, a prediction has been made of the elderly population in the streets of townships and towns in Rongcheng City in 2035 by using the age shift algorithm; with the spatial analysis method in ArcGIS adopted, an analysis has been made of the spatial distribution characteristics of the elderly population and elderly care institutions in towns and streets of Rongcheng City in 2010 and 2035. The research shows that from 2010 to 2035, the elderly population in various towns and streets shows a rapid increasing trend, while in Yatou Street, Gangwan Street, Xunshan Road and Chishan Street it is also in a growth state. From 2010 to 2035, there are diversities in the spatial aggregation degree of the elderly population, with its peak area in the southern and central regions, and a low aggregation degree of the elderly population in the northern region. The spatial distribution of facilities of elderly care institutions is consistent with the spatial distribution of the elderly population with a degree of diversity. Yatou Street and Gangwan Street are elderly population gathering areas with an obviously insufficient layout of elderly care institutions.