商业建筑火灾蔓延风险评估方法研究

通过调查全国大中型商业建筑的特大火灾案例,建立控制火灾蔓延系统模型进行分析。通过采用Bayes方法,克服了火灾数据缺乏,而且又难以进行大量重复试验的困难,统计出各基本事件发生概率的条件期望估计与方差。通过系统故障树分析,得出我国大中型商业建筑在火灾发生情况下控制火灾蔓延失败的概率,并进行误差传播分析。最后通过系统决策,为防治火灾蔓延提供依据。

A Study on Fire Extension Risk Assessment Method of Commercial Building

By systematic investigation and study of fire cases that happened in big and middle-scale commercial constructions,a system model is built up.Expected value and square deviation of probability of basical events are calculated by using Bayes method which can overcome the difficulty of lacking in fire data and hard making fire experiences repeated.Then the failure probability of controlling over fire extension is concluded from fault tree analysis.And error propagation analysis of the fault tree is made.On the basis of the systematic strategic decision,it will provide basis for preventing the fire extension.