基于偏最小二乘回归的电能替代多情景预测方法

当前我国面临的能源供应与环境保护形势十分严峻,电能替代受到社会各界的强烈关注。综合考虑能源价格、碳排放量等因素的作用,从4个维度出发构建电能替代影响因素指标体系和多情景分析模型;提出基于偏最小二乘回归的电能替代潜力分析预测方法,结合未来辽宁能源、经济、电力发展预测数据,预测十三五期间累计电能替代量的预测区间。结果表明,该方法在电能替代潜力分析中具有较强的适用性与有效性,为制定电能替代战略的实施路线与激励政策提供技术支撑。

Multiple Scenarios Prediction Method for Electric Energy Substitution Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

At present,the situations of energy supply and the environmental protection in China are very severe.The electric energy substitution has received strong attention from all circles.Considering the effects of energy price,carbon emissions and other factors,this paper constructs the index system of electric energy substitution influencing factors in four dimensions and multiple scenarios analysis model.The prediction method of electric energy substitution potential based on partial least squares regression(PLS)is proposed.Based on the forecast data of energy,economy and power development of Liaoning in the near future,the interval of accumulative electric energy substitution during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is forecasted.The results show that this method has strong applicability and validity in the potential analysis of electric energy substitution.It can provide technical support for formulating the implementation route and can incentive policies of electric energy substitution strategy.