基于特征量的小子样试验鉴定精度研究

本文针对导弹武器评估的特点和需要,建立了能充分利用全程飞行跟踪数据、历次试验数据、阵地测试数据等试验资源的试验鉴定模型。基于两类先验的研究和特征量的建立,应用Bayes方法与序贯分析理论,研究了各动力特性段和特征点的试验鉴定精度。理论分析及仿真计算表明,本文方法能充分利用试验资源,同时作出较高精度的试验评估结论。

EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF SMALL-SAMPLE MISSILE TEST BASED ON CHARACTERISTIC VARIABLES

Aimed at the need of test and evaluation of missiles and considering its trajectory characteristics, a model was constructed making full use of tracking data, shooting range test data and other prior information. By virtue of Bayesian theory and the sequential analysis technique, a new evaluation method was put forth to study the accuracy and reliability of the missile test, which is on the basis of investigating different prior and constructing three different characteristic variables.Those characteristic variables embody features of the same type of missile in many tests. Theoretical analysis and simulation show that this method can make full use of test resources and provide evaluation results with high accuracy.