基于风险评估的配电设备状态检修决策方法

针对当前配电系统定期运维存在的实时性差、运维资源分配不合理的问题,提出了一种依据配电设备实时健康状态评价与风险评估结果合理分配运维资源的状态检修决策方法。首先依据配电设备状态评价结果计算设备健康度指数,利用指数模型计算配电设备的实时故障率;进而采用"馈线分区法"计算整个配电网中所有设备的平均实时故障率;最后依据每个设备的风险损失成本,计算各设备相对风险成本,据此指标确定不同设备的运维方式与运维顺序,制定差异化运维策略。通过算例验证了所提模型的有效性。

Condition-based Maintenance Decision-making Method for Distribution Equipment Based on Risk Assessment

Aiming at the problems in the existing distribution system , such as poor real-time performance and unreason-able allocation of operation and maintenance resources , a condition-based maintenance decision-making method based on real-time health status assessment and risk assessment result is proposed. First , an equipment health index is calcu-lated according to the status assessment results of distribution equipment , and the real-time failure rate of distribution equipment is calculated using an exponential model. Then , the average real-time failure rates of all equipment in the dis-tribution network are calculated using the feeder partition method , the importance degree of equipment is determined by the loss cost of failed equipment assets , including the loss cost of users due to power outage , equipment cost , and envi-ronmental loss cost. Finally , according to the risk loss cost of each equipment , the relative risk cost of each equipment is calculated , thus the modes and order of operation and maintenance of different equipment are determined according-ly. In this way , a differentiated operation and maintenance strategy is formulated , and the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through a numerical example.