Estimation of the interindividual variability in the one-compartment pharmacokinetic model for methylmercury: implications for the derivation of a reference dose

A critical step in the U.S. EPA's derivation of an Reference Dose (RfD) for methylmercury is conversion of the maternal hair Hg concentration of 11 ppm to average daily intake using the one-compartment pharmacokinetic model. A default uncertainty factor (UF) adjustment of 3 for interindividual variability was then applied to this conversion. A probabilistic (Monte Carlo) analysis is presented estimating the interindividual variability inherent in this dose conversion for women 18-40 years old based on data in the scientific literature. The dose of 1.1 micrograms/kg/day, calculated by the U.S. EPA to correspond to 11 ppm Hg in hair, is estimated in this analysis to be larger than 94-99% of corresponding doses. The application of a UF of 3 to this U.S. EPA value gives a dose which is estimated to be larger than 28-73% of corresponding doses. This analysis suggests that if the dose conversion in the RfD is intended to be inclusive of 95-99% of women 18-40, the daily intake should be set at 0.1-0.3 microgram/kg/day. The RfD of 0.03-0.1 microgram/kg/day, derived from this dose by the U.S. EPA's application of an additional UF of 3 for additional toxicologic concerns, is somewhat smaller than the current RfD of 0.1 microgram/kg/day.