基于MM5V3的大气波导预报可靠性和准确度分析

利用GTS高空探测数据和FNL最终分析数据验证MM5V3中尺度数值天气预报模式预报大气波导的有效性，验证区域为东海关注区、南海关注区和亚丁湾关注区，并分别从可靠性和准确度两个方面进行了分析.1）用GTS高空探测数据对表面、悬空波导预报结果进行了验证，结果表明:对一般强度表面、悬空波导预报可靠度为60%~80%；对强波导预报可靠度为80%以上；对波导顶高预报均方根误差为500~800 m；波导强度预报均方根误差为10~20 M.2）用4天的FNL数据对蒸发波导高发区预报结果进行了验证，结果表明:蒸发波导预报可靠度为90%以上；波导顶高预报均方根误差为2~3 m.总体而言，对于表面、悬空波导，MM5V3对强波导的预报可靠度较高，对一般强度的波导预报可靠度较低，且波导预报准确度很低；对于蒸发波导高发区，MM5V3可以初步实现波导的预报.上述结果为检验中尺度数值天气预报模式预报大气波导的有效性提供了参考，具有现实指导意义.

Reliability and accuracy to atmospheric duct prediction based on MM5V3

The effectiveness of using MM5V3 numerical weather model to forecast atmospheric duct was tested by radiosonde data from GTS and final operational analysis(FNL) data in three regions:focused regions of East China Sea,focused regions of South China Sea,and focused regions of Gulf of Aden from two aspects of reliability and accuracy to analyse,we obtain the following results.First,for the weaker surface and elevated duct(SED),the reliability of prediction is 60％ to 80％,and the reliability of stronger SED,is more than 80％;root mean square error(RMSE) of prediction for duct top height and strength are 500-800 m and 10-20 M respectively.Second,FNL data of four days are used to test the reliability and accuracy of evaporation duct(ED) prediction in high incidence area.The results show that the reliability of prediction is more than 90％ and RMSE of top height prediction is 2-3 m.Generally,reliability of weaker SED prediction is low and it is higher for that of stronger SED.The accuracy of prediction for both SED top height and strength are very low.For ED in high incidence area,MM5V3 own the ability to predict it.The above results provide a reference for the prediction of the effectiveness of the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model for the prediction of atmospheric waveguides,which is of practical significance.