（23期已送排）基于负载率和健康状态的高压XLPE电缆可靠性评估模型*

以高压XLPE电缆为研究对象,选取其绝缘热点温度(insulation hot spot temperature,IHST)为关键变量,结合Weibull分布和Arrhenius反应定律,建立基于负载率的高压电缆XLPE老化失效模型,并利用高压电缆预防性试验、在线检测技术、日常巡检和历史记录建立基于模糊层次分析法的电缆健康指数模型。为使这两类模型优势互补,将健康指数模型中的健康指数作为参量引入到老化失效模型,提出一种能同时反映高压电缆不可修复故障和可修复故障的综合故障率模型。最后通过实例验证表明,该模型能反映高压电缆实际的可靠性水平,可为有关维修部门开展设备检修提供理论依据,具有一定的参考价值。

Development of high voltage XLPE cable reliability assessment model based on load factor and health status

For the voltage(HV) XLPE cable,its insulation hot spot temperature (IHST) was chosen as the key variable.Firstly,the load rate based aging failure model of XLPE was developed by employing the Weibull distribution and the Arrhenius reaction law.Next,a HV cable health index (HI) model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) was conducted by using its preventive tests,online inspection techniques,daily routine inspections and historical records.In order to better use the two models,the HI was introduced to the aging failure model,then,a comprehensive failure factor model that can reflect both the irreparable faults and repairable faults was proposed.Finally,a case study shows that the model can reflect the actual reliability level of HV cable,providing the theoretical basis for the maintenance departments to carry out the equipment maintenance and having a certain reference value.