基于模糊灰色系统的深部巷道围岩变形预测模型及应用

针对深部巷道围岩变形预测问题，建立了一种基于模糊数学理论及灰色理论的模糊灰色系统预测新模型。首先根据模糊数学理论，对监测的数据样本进行模糊化处理，采用不同时刻历史数据赋予不同的隶属度，并引入巷道围岩变形影响因素的权重参数，将数据序列转化为一个带权重参数的模糊序列，再利用灰色理论建立具有新陈代谢功能的深部巷道围岩变形的模糊灰色系统预测模型（FGM）。同时在Matlab平台上开发了深部巷道围岩变形的模糊灰色系统预测软件，并成功的进行了工程应用。

Prediction model and its application of deep mine tunnel surrounding rock deformation based on fuzzy-gray system

Aiming at the question of deep mine tunnel surrounding rock deformation’s prediction，a new prediction model which was based on fuzzy mathematics theory and gray theory was established.Firstly，this paper fuzzed monitoring data sample by using fuzzy mathematics theory，adopted historical data of different periods to endow different degrees of membership，and weight parameter was led in the factors influencing deformation of surrounding rock of tunnel，inverted the measured data sequence to a fuzzy data sequence accompanied with weight parameter，then used gray theory to establish a Fuzzy-Gray-Model.At the same time，it has the function of metabolism and developed Fuzzy-Gray-Model prediction system on the platform of Matlab used to predict surrounding rock deformation，and got the success of the engineering application.