| 水库汛限水位实时动态控制研究及风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张改红,周惠成,王本德,郑德凤.水库汛限水位实时动态控制研究及风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张改红 周惠成 王本德 郑德凤 |
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| 作者单位： | 张改红,ZHANG Gaihong(大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁,大连,116024;平顶山工学院市政系,河南,平顶山,467044);周惠成,王本德,ZHOU Huicheng,WANG Bende(大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁,大连,116024);郑德凤,ZHENG Defeng(辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁,大连,116029)
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，辽宁省教育厅高等学校科学技术研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于汛限水位动态控制新理念,利用退水预报计算入库洪水,根据上下游面临时刻的工情、雨情、水情、灾情信息预测洪水预见期内的预蓄预泄能力;依托短期降雨预报,在同时保证大坝与下游防洪不成灾的前提下估算后续起调水位;在此基础上将实时预蓄预泄能力与后续起调水位相耦合,提出汛限水位实时动态控制模型.并对其可能产生风险进行分析.最后以于桥水库为例,对不同初始流量的退水阶段与面临未来24h降雨预报不同量级时的汛限水位动态控制期望值及其风险进行计算,结果表明此模型可在一定风险范围内增加水库汛末蓄水机率,为指导水库实时调度提供理论依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 水电工程 汛限水位 模拟 风险 动态控制 |
Real-time dynamic control of the limited water level of reservoir in flood period and its risk analysis |
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| ZHANG Gaihong,ZHOU Huicheng,WANG Bende,ZHENG Defeng.Real-time dynamic control of the limited water level of reservoir in flood period and its risk analysis[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(1). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Gaihong ZHOU Huicheng WANG Bende ZHENG Defeng |
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| Affiliation: | 1;2;1.School of Civil and Hydraul.Eng.;Dalian Univ.of Technol.;Dalian 116023;2.Dept.of Urban Service.;Pingdingshan Institute of Technol.;Henan 467044;3.School of Urban and Environ.;Liaoning Norm.Univ.;Dalian 116029 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the new idea of the dynamic control of the limited water level of reservoirs in flood period,a real-time dynamic control model is proposed on the basis of the ability of pre-impound and pre-release,the limited water level of reservoir in next flood period is built.The pre-impound and pre-release ability of reservoir is estimated by flood recession forecast with considering the engineering,rain,inflow and inundation status.The limited water level ensures the safety of the dam and downstream, then it... |
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| Keywords: | hydropower engineering the limited water level of reservoir in flood period simulation risk dynamic control |
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