近50年中国最大1 d降水量变化趋势分析

为了解气候变暖对极端降水的影响，根据1960～2009年气象站实测降水量资料，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、线性趋势和反映序列持续性的Hurst指数，分析了四季中国西部、北方和南方三个区域最大1 d降水量的变化特征，并探讨了20世纪80年代前后中国四季最大1 d降水量的变化趋势。结果表明，近50年来西部四季最大1 d降水量均呈增加趋势，北方仅冬季呈上升趋势，南方则冬、夏两季增加，春、秋两季减小；相对80年代前，80年代后冬季三大区域、夏季西部和南方及秋季西部最大1 d降水量有所增加，春、秋季北方和南方则减少；各区域四季最大1 d降水量时间序列具有明显的持续性，即未来最大1 d降水量变化趋势将与近50年的变化趋势保持一致，且持续时间西部最长，北方次之，南方最短。

Variation Trend of Maximum Daily Precipitation in Recent 50 Years in China

In order to diagnose impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation events, the Mann-Kendall test, linear tendency test and Hurst exponent, which reflects the continuity of hydrology series, are applied in this study. Based on the observed precipitation of meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009, seasonal maximum daily precipitation variations in the western, northern and southern part of China are analyzed. Moreover, the changing characteristics of the maximum daily precipitation before and after the 1980s are further analyzed. The results demonstrate that the maximum daily precipitation increases in each season for the western part, increases in winter for the northern part, while increases in winter and summer but decrease in the other two seasons for southern part of China. Compared with the maximum daily precipitation before the 1980s, precipitation increases in winter for whole China, in summer for the western and southern part of China, and in autumn only for the western part of China after the 1980s. The Hurst exponent indicates that the maximum daily precipitation series has characteristics of obvious durability and long-term memory for all the seasons in three parts of China; that is whose variation trends in the future are consistent with that in recent 50 years. It shows that western China has the longest duration, followed by the northern and southern China.