关于土坝沉降过程回归分析模型选择的思考

要做好土坝沉降过程的回归分析，首要的工作是选择一个合适的数学模型。该文试图在这方面作一点探索。首先，提出了模型选择的基本原则，并据此确定了选择的范围。然后，通过大量的拟合、试算，优选了４个可用的模型。并建议：在分析之前，先用这４个模型分别试算拟合，即可找到适合该坝沉降分析的最佳模型。该文提出的方法，对于防洪土堤沉降监测资料的分析，也是适用的。

CONSIDERATIONS ON MODEL SELECTION FOR EARTH DAM SETTLEMENT REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In settlement regression analysis for an earth dam. the most important step is to select a proper model. Such a subject is discussed in this paper. At first, the basic principles for model selection are put forward. then the range of models that meet the principles is determined. Six data sets derived from earth dam surveillance are used to fit the models within the range. On the basis of trial computations. four models are selected for use. It is suggusted that before settlement analysis of a specific earth dam. the data should be used to fit the four models respectively so as to determine the most proper model. The method described in this paper is also practical for settlement analysis of large flood control earth dykes.