基于响应曲面和重要性抽样方法的热力系统参数失效概率计算

本文研究了将响应曲面与重要性抽样相结合的方法用于复杂热力系统参数失效概率的计算。建立了热力系统物理过程参数失效的数学模型，在此基础上研究了将响应曲面与重要性抽样相结合的算法模型，并给出了热力系统组成设备的性能退化模型和基于重要性抽样的仿真流程，进而对反应堆净化系统工作过程中参数失效问题进行了分析计算。研究表明，对于高维、非线性特性明显并考虑性能退化的复杂热力系统参数失效概率的计算，重要性抽样法较直接抽样能以较高效率获得满意精度的计算结果，而响应曲面法存在局限；响应曲面和重要性抽样相结合的方法是分析热力系统物理过程参数失效的有效方法。

Calculation of Parameter Failure Probability of Thermodynamic System by Response Surface and Importance Sampling Method

In this paper, the combined method of response surface and importance sampling was applied for calculation of parameter failure probability of the thermodynamic system. The mathematics model was present for the parameter failure of physics process in the thermodynamic system，by which the combination arithmetic model of response surface and importance sampling was established, then the performance degradation model of the components and the simulation process of parameter failure in the physics process of thermodynamic system were also present. The parameter failure probability of the purification water system in nuclear reactor was obtained by the combination method. The results show that the combination method is an effective method for the calculation of the parameter failure probability of the thermodynamic system with high dimensionality and non-linear characteristics, because of the satisfactory precision with less computing time than the direct sampling method and the drawbacks of response surface method.