MODELLING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND

This report paper examines current domestic water demand elasticity, with weather variables, as an aid to assessing the potential impact of climate change on domestic water demand. An empirical model of the relationship between summer domestic water demand and concurrent weather under current climatic and socio-economic conditions is developed and then applied to weather data which have been produced for 2020AD climate scenarios. The model is based on data for the Essex area supplied by Essex and Suffolk Water. The results suggest an increase in summer seven-day average domestic-water demand of 3.3 l/hd. d (range 1.37–5.72 l/hd. d), in addition to an increase in the frequency of large demand events. The analysis forms the basis of a wider exposition, examining future domestic water demand under varying climate-change scenarios.