分布式光伏发电经济性及政策分析

针对居民和工商业用户分布式光伏发电提出了经济性分析方法,对居民和工商业分布式光伏发电投资项目的经济指标进行了测算,并选取全国6个地区进行比较研究,分析了上网比例、电价、配套政策和太阳能资源等因素对分布式光伏发电经济性的影响。结果表明,居民和工商业分布式光伏发电系统在大部分地区的内部收益率能达到8%以上,静态投资回收期为5~11年,具有良好的经济性和较高的投资价值。对分布式光伏发电系统所发电量上网比例和年利用小时数进行敏感性分析,结果表明：上网比例越小,则内部收益率越高,静态投资回收期越短;年利用小时数则相反。最后,深入探讨了目前分布式光伏发电推广应用中存在的问题,提出了完善配套政策的对策和建议。

Economy and Policy Analysis of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation

This paper presented an economic analysis method of distributed photovoltaic generation for the users, including resident, industry and commerce. The economy indexes of the investing project were calculated. Then this paper took 6 different areas from the country to compare, and analyzed the influences of the factors on distributed photovoltaic generation, such as the rate to grid, the electricity price, the supporting policies, the solar resource, etc. The results show that the distributed photovoltaic generation systems have good economic performance and higher investment value in most areas, whose IRR （internal rate of return） is above 8%, and the stable investment recovery period is between 5 to 11 years. This paper also made a sensitivity analysis on the rate to grid and annual utilization hours of the distributed photovoltaic generation systems. The results show that the smaller the rate to grid is , the better IRR and stable investment recovery period are; while, the influences of annual utilization hours are opposite. At last, the problems in the application of distributed photovoltaic generation systems were discussed deeply, and the advices and countermeasures of perfect supporting policies were proposed.